Friday morning my daughter calls with this pained tone to her voice asking, "Pops, is it true that Israel is going to bomb Iran? ..." To say that that statement was a bit rattling to me coming from my daughter would be an understatement. However, if you have been around me much in the last three years, you have probably heard me speak to this very subject for it has cataclysmic implication.
As the Arab Spring turned into Arab Summer and now into Arab Autumn, I thought that has never been too far from my mind is a simple question ... why has Israel remained so low profile and seemingly disassociated with the Arab whatevers? It certainly is out of the norm for Israel to remain "dormant" militarily on any opportunity as we have witnessed even in Biblical days but as recently as the three Arab wars of 1967, 1970 and 1973. In this context, I have made the further assertion that I would bet my teeth America has "mortgaged the farm" in a host of ways to keep Israel in the low profile, non aggressive mode with so much opportunity abounding around her. I still think that to be the case!
Iran is, well, the force in the region with huge oil reserves, nuclear power with belief that that power is being turned into bomb grade plutonium (I agree) but with a faltering economy, a firebrand president and dominated by a theocratic cleric that seems to serve as the saucer of coolness to keep the Iranian president somewhat at bay. Somewhat! But it is that same president that has publicly touted the strategy to have Israel removed from the map so that makes him and thus Iran a powerful ignition cap to a regional and probably a multi-regional military intervention. The potential of such an aggressive posture is immeasurable. Iran must, at some point, be dealt with either, and hopefully through, diplomatic channels or or and / or military force.
So here is my concern at this juncture .... the US military is stretched, exhausted and costing too much to maintain for the economic engines to feed that need are running on very few cylinders which is our GDP growth; tepid is an understatement. So should military intervention be the hammer for the Iranian nail, we would end up borrowing billions additional of dollars from China to fight in a regional war. Hum, really makes you sick, doesn't it?
Now then there is NATO that has fought a valiant (tongue in cheek) air campaign in Libya which is much like the 82nd Airborne taking on Dover, OH and now that the NATO stand down, declaration of victory, has begun, NATO has now formed a circular firing squad and are firing away at each other for glory, spoils, etc. NATO --- for me is the post WWII joke of the 21st century. So I doubt, therefore, NATO a viable intervention force should hostilities unleash on / in Iran.
So, America is a weak sister, NATO is sick ugly cousin, so what does that leave the world to calm this intervention with global implication? Also, as I have spoken about many times because of my many times in Turkey and feel a sense of knowing the Turkish culture to some degree, I believe Turkey can become an Islamic force. But wait, let us not forget they ONLY major economy on earth now with actual cash assets which is China as a major economic, political and, I believe, military player on the world's map boards! China is showing projection, force forward, tremendous naval buildup with air assets so one cannot ignore China as a player in our new century. So from my chair as the sun hides on the horizon of a beautiful day, I have this sense that we will see Turkey and China work more energetically in the entire Arab region. Why? They both have money and political capital and large military force structures.
So to my daughter, I told her I did not see anything in the near term with Israel having to fly over much territory and unfriendly airspace to lash out at Iran even though there is no doubt that there are many scenarios on the walls of Israel's war machine to accomplish just that. Think about this. Go get a map of the Middle Eastern region and see what Israel would have to do, geographically, to assault with air asset Iran meaning an eastern thrust. First, there is no friendly air space for Israel to use for refueling, Command & Control, etc. BUT, if you look North, you see Eastern Turkey up there with Incirlik air base with already existing US military infrastructure that could possibly be the C&C point for a southward assault into Iran from the North. Just sayin!
So Turkey is a player, major player with a free market economy, a democratic government, strong alliances in the Middle East and Europe and with the US. Turkey is a player. China, cash rich, colonial minded is, well a player. Turkey and China have very good relations. So Turkey and China are players; players now with the clout to create kinetic force forward or calming. They are players as America and the EU are, well, lesser players in our new century.
Interesting world isn't it?
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