Anyone on earth surprised about the market performance globally today must surely have been sequestered somewhere like Western Michigan for we saw reality quake its way through this thing called a global economy. It began Sunday with the Tel Aviv exchange since Sunday is a business day and exploded in Asia, roared across Europe as the sun continued to rise on a day in infamy in the US when our markets opened. We saw what will probably be more the norm than the exception at least in the short term. Scary isn't it?
As is typical for me, when I see all the guns blazing, the networks in hyper doomsday rhetoric I tend to step back, detach, climb into my AH1G attack helicopter, pull the pitch on the blades and hold steady at about 2K meter above it all and do an environmental scan. That was not too pretty either! But as I hovered hearing the rotor wash tamp down the rhetoric for a few precious minutes, my mind went back to my tire making days at Goodyear and thought about what a tire plant would do if faced with a calamitous situation. Here is what good tire makers would do ....
Every leader would be pulled back into the plant and the plant manager would educate all the leaders on the situation, the implication going forward. Production Control would become the scheduling air traffic controllers providing timing and numbers required. The key leaders of the various production areas would be drawn around the Production Manager and clear direction provided with accountability established. Nobody would go home until the mess was cleaned up and steady state reestablished. Leaders from Corporate Headquarters would be crawling over every inch of the plant to sort out the issues and bottlenecks. There is a fix and leaders get things fixed. There would be a plan that is written, accountability assigned by name and a deadline. It would get done or somebody else would be in that chair in a day or two until it got done ... ACCOUNTABILITY.
Using that as an analysis and parallel, remember I am still hovering over all of this, and look at how our government is dealing with this global pig sty that is crippling markets and retirements all over the world. Thirty soldiers die in one fail swoop, it makes the Sunday evening news but is drowned out today with the market implosion ... sad but so true! But staying with my tire plant analogy, I see no sense of urgency, no forcing Congress back to work where they are home campaigning since they created this mess. I see no leadership in Washington other than a talking head in the President telling us not to worry for it is all eminently solvable. Where is the sense of urgency!? Geithner announced he would remain through 2012 elections when he probably should be one of the culprits hanging from the Capitol Dome lights upside down along with a few others.
Have you noticed the turn over in the President's economic advisor cadre? They are all leaving, heading back to universities to teach, tenure tracks no doubt, spouting all the great theories they used during their White House time. The turn over is remindent of the rats trying to get off the Titanic but the chief rat is staying through the 2012 elections ... very interesting. Bernanke, tonight, is being hailed as the calming voice for tomorrow that will make us all feel better and the boogie man will go away. This is the same Bernanke, like Geithner, that was complicit in the bank bailouts in conjunction with Hank Paulson; when have you heard his name? Paul Ryan, another star of the future has apparently gone MIA in the Congressional cauldron of deceit!
I heard a commentator today that spoke about as clearly as reality will allow about all of this for those now retired or soon will be ... she said, well, investors and retirees just need to sit tight for really there is no where else to go right now .... that was a warm and fuzzy moment for me you can know! NOT!!!
Well, the markets are opening now in Asia and they are showing significantly down in every Asian country and it is early morning there. So from what I see I believe we will see another 500 plus point loss tomorrow at least. Guess it is time to land my chopper! I am tired of this scan plus they are shooting at me now!
The great news .... God is in control of all of this; that is a blessed assurance!!
Our country and media have completely forgotten that it is private business that is the primary driving force behind the economy. Can we focus on the fundamentals of business as opposed to stimulus, debt ceilings and other miracle pills?
ReplyDeleteThe sell-off the past 10 days brings back memories of 2008-09. But the fundamentals are vastly different, which means people are selling on the news and emotions. (And as long as people are tuning in to the TV the headlines won't change much.) Businesses balance sheets are far healthier than 3 years ago. The economy is still expected to grow, albeit modestly, and economic data continues to support this. Businesses are not nearly as leveraged as three years ago and they are making money. I'm licking my chops at this down turn and buying great companies at huge discounts.
When everyone seems to be afraid - I'm a buyer of equities. When everyone is bullish - I begin to sell and lock in my profits. Often times it's best to think contrarian!